Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Orlando ArciaBatting2-3
- Tanner GordonPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Freeman hit sacrifice fly to center, Moniak scored.1–2
- 4Crow-Armstrong homered to right (379 feet).0–2
- 1Suzuki doubled to center, Tucker scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 75%
- ML COL +285 / CHC -360
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 73.5%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -301
- COL +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.5 – 5.0 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1392 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +1 | COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +177 Elo | CHC 73.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 74.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 74.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 6.01st of 30 |
| 30th of 306.4 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.2 | Margin | +1.72nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 30th of 303–24 | Road vs home | 17–87th of 30 |
| 1st of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 30th of 301392 | Elo rating | 15453rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–34 | 28–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 19–16 |
| Underdog | 19–31 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders | 23–32 | 35–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–10 CHC in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.