Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carson PalmquistPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Kyle TuckerBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tucker hit sacrifice fly to left, Shaw scored.1–3
- 5Tucker singled to center, Shaw scored.1–2
- 5Moniak homered to right center (399 feet).1–1
- 1Swanson grounded out to third, Happ scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 74%
- ML COL +270 / CHC -350
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 73.4%, market 74.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -288
- COL +288 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.6 – 4.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1393 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +4 | COL: Carson Palmquist: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +176 Elo | CHC 73.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 69.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 70.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 74.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 6.11st of 30 |
| 30th of 306.5 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.2 | Margin | +1.72nd of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 30th of 303–22 | Road vs home | 15–811th of 30 |
| 1st of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 30th of 301393 | Elo rating | 15443rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–33 | 27–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 18–15 |
| Underdog | 18–30 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders | 23–30 | 35–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–8 CHC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.