Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Reese McGuireBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching4.1 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Reds- Austin HaysBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suzuki homered to left (399 feet), Happ scored and Tucker scored.11–8
- 8McGuire homered to right (351 feet).8–8
- 7Busch singled to right, Hoerner scored.7–8
- 7Hoerner doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored and Swanson scored.6–8
- 6Hoerner scored on Barlow wild pitch, Busch to third on wild pitch by Barlow.4–8
- 6Hoerner scored on Barlow wild pitch, Busch to third on wild pitch by Barlow.4–8
- 5Trevino doubled to left, Hays scored.3–8
- 5Hays tripled to left, Friedl scored and De La Cruz scored.3–7
- 5De La Cruz singled to center, McLain scored, Friedl to third.3–5
- 2McGuire homered to right center (372 feet).3–4
- 1Trevino scored on Brown wild pitch, Benson to second on wild pitch by Brown.2–4
- 1Trevino scored on Brown wild pitch, Benson to second on wild pitch by Brown.2–4
- 1Benson singled to right, Hays scored, Trevino to third.2–3
- 1Trevino singled to right, De La Cruz scored, Hays to second.2–2
- 1Hays singled to left, Friedl scored, De La Cruz to third.2–1
- 1Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Tucker scored and Suzuki scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 55%
- ML CHC -135 / CIN +115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 54.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -124
- CIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.5 – 4.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −2 | CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +28 Elo | CHC 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.0 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.012th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3016–11 | Road vs home | 14–1320th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 4th of 301542 | Elo rating | 149520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–26 | 29–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–15 | 11–17 |
| Underdog | 9–11 | 18–7 |
| Overs–unders | 34–18 | 20–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 12–16 CIN in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 28.