Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting3-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Swanson homered to right (363 feet), Kelly scored.13–6
- 8Suzuki homered to left (373 feet), Hoerner scored and Happ scored.11–6
- 7Crow-Armstrong homered to right (350 feet), Happ scored, Tucker scored and Suzuki scored.8–6
- 7Tucker singled to right, Hoerner scored and Shaw scored, Happ to second.4–6
- 5Friedl singled to right, Stephenson scored, Benson to third.2–6
- 5Stephenson doubled to center, Steer scored.2–5
- 4Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (410 feet), Suzuki scored.2–4
- 3Hays scored on Boyd wild pitch.0–4
- 3Hays scored on Boyd wild pitch.0–4
- 1Steer doubled to left, De La Cruz scored, Hays to third.0–3
- 1Hays singled to right, Espinal scored, De La Cruz to third.0–2
- 1Espinal reached on infield single to pitcher, Friedl scored on throwing error by pitcher Boyd, Espinal to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 50%
- ML CHC -110 / CIN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 47.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CIN -100
- CHC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +16 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +14 Elo | CHC 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | +0.610th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3015–10 | Road vs home | 13–1220th of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 148630th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301541 | Elo rating | 149720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–25 | 28–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–15 | 10–16 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 18–7 |
| Overs–unders | 32–18 | 18–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 0–10 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 11–15 CIN in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 26.