Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Carson KellyBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kelly homered to left (374 feet).4–6
- 8Crow-Armstrong hit sacrifice fly to right, Suzuki scored.3–6
- 7Happ grounded out to first, Kelly scored, Shaw to third.2–6
- 5Steer singled to center, De La Cruz scored.1–6
- 5De La Cruz singled to center, Friedl scored and Espinal scored.1–5
- 4Benson hit sacrifice fly to center, Lux scored, Steer to second.1–3
- 3Turner homered to left center (406 feet).1–2
- 1De La Cruz homered to right center (387 feet), Espinal scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML CHC -115 / CIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 52.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.8 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +10 | CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +15 Elo | CHC 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.0 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.012th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.8 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3016–10 | Road vs home | 13–1320th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 148730th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301544 | Elo rating | 149420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–25 | 28–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–15 | 10–17 |
| Underdog | 9–10 | 18–7 |
| Overs–unders | 33–18 | 19–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 12–15 CIN in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 27.