New York Yankees at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5McMahon doubled to center, Goodman scored and Tovar scored.2–3
- 5Judge homered to left (365 feet).2–1
- 4Farmer singled to left, McMahon scored.1–1
- 1Goldschmidt tripled to right, Judge scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 70%
- ML NYY -265 / COL +215
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 71.8%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -229
- COL +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 6.7 – 4.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −15 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +162 Elo | NYY 71.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 72.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 72.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 3.329th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 6.530th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.9 | Margin | −3.230th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 6th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 5–2030th of 30 |
| 8th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15142nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301556 | Elo rating | 139430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–23 | 18–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–20 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 16–29 |
| Overs–unders | 22–27 | 22–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 3–3 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.