Texas Rangers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Heim homered to right (362 feet), Pederson scored.2–5
- 8Judge homered to right (326 feet), Grisham scored.0–5
- 6Volpe doubled to center, Goldschmidt scored, Grisham to third.0–3
- 4Rice hit sacrifice fly to center, Judge scored.0–2
- 2Rice homered to right (376 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 66%
- ML TEX +180 / NYY -215
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.1%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -191
- TEX +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.5 – 5.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −6 | TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +71 Elo | NYY 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.82nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +2.01st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 308–13 | Road vs home | 15–914th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15532nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–25 | 25–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 21–18 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 15–33 | 22–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 7–6 NYY in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.