Texas Rangers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Domínguez homered to right (398 feet).3–4
- 8Judge singled to left, Goldschmidt scored, Grisham thrown out at third.3–3
- 7Bellinger homered to right center (383 feet).3–2
- 7Haggerty homered to right (390 feet).3–1
- 7Burger homered to right center (367 feet).2–1
- 5Burger homered to left (370 feet).1–1
- 2LeMahieu grounded out to second, Volpe scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 51%
- ML TEX -105 / NYY -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 58.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.7 – 3.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | 0 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Ryan Yarbrough: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +62 Elo | NYY 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.82nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +2.01st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 308–14 | Road vs home | 16–912th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15057th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Elo rating | 15542nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–26 | 26–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 22–18 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 15–34 | 22–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 7–7 NYY in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.