New York Yankees at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- J.C. EscarraBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moniak homered to right (417 feet).5–4
- 8Escarra singled to right, Domínguez scored.5–3
- 6Doyle doubled to left, McMahon scored.4–3
- 5Domínguez hit sacrifice fly to center, Rice scored.4–2
- 5Judge doubled to left, Goldschmidt scored, Rice to third.3–2
- 2Escarra doubled to left, Volpe scored.2–2
- 1McMahon grounded out to first, Tovar scored, Goodman to third.1–2
- 1Beck scored on Warren wild pitch, Goodman to second on wild pitch by Warren, Tovar to third on wild pitch by Warren.1–1
- 1Beck scored on Warren wild pitch, Goodman to second on wild pitch by Warren, Tovar to third on wild pitch by Warren.1–1
- 1Bellinger grounded into fielder's choice to first, Goldschmidt scored, Judge out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 71%
- ML NYY -285 / COL +230
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 70.4%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -244
- COL +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 6.2 – 4.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −10 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +151 Elo | NYY 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 71.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 71.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 3.229th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 6.530th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.1 | Margin | −3.330th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 6th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 6–2130th of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15162nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301557 | Elo rating | 139430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–24 | 19–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–21 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 17–30 |
| Overs–unders | 23–28 | 23–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 4–4 COL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.