New York Yankees at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8LeMahieu singled to center, Volpe scored, Domínguez to second.13–1
- 8Volpe doubled to left, Bellinger scored.12–1
- 5Grisham doubled to center, Goldschmidt scored and Peraza scored.11–1
- 5Goldschmidt singled to center, Wells scored, Peraza to third.9–1
- 5Wells doubled to right, LeMahieu scored and Volpe scored.8–1
- 5Domínguez hit sacrifice fly to center, Judge scored.6–1
- 5Volpe reached on infield single to second, Grisham scored, Judge to third.5–1
- 5Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to left, Goldschmidt scored.4–1
- 5Peraza scored on throwing error by pitcher Kyle Freeland, Grisham safe at second, Goldschmidt safe at third.3–1
- 5Peraza doubled to left, Wells scored.2–1
- 4Toglia tripled to right, Tovar scored.1–1
- 1Judge homered to right center (405 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 74%
- ML NYY -335 / COL +265
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 70.8%, market 73.8%
- Fair odds
- NYY -281
- COL +281 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 6.4 – 4.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1396 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | 0 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +154 Elo | NYY 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 74.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 73.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 73.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 3.329th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.9 | Margin | −3.130th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 7th of 3012–11 | Road vs home | 6–2030th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15152nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301554 | Elo rating | 139630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–24 | 19–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–21 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 17–29 |
| Overs–unders | 22–28 | 22–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 3–4 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.