Chicago White Sox at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lindor hit sacrifice fly to right, Taylor scored.1–2
- 8Soto hit sacrifice fly to left, Acuña scored, Nimmo to second.1–1
- 4Benintendi hit sacrifice fly to left, Tauchman scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 71%
- ML CHW +230 / NYM -285
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- NYM: Elo 70.9%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -244
- CHW +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.3 – 5.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | CHW: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +155 Elo | NYM 70.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 73.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 73.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.15th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–21 | Road vs home | 19–61st of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 29th of 301410 | Elo rating | 15415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–23 | 26–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 16–22 |
| Underdog | 30–22 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 26–27 | 18–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–5 NYM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.