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Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets, MLB forecast

FinalFox, MLB.TV

Away

Dodgers

32-20

2–5

at

Home

Mets

31-21

LAD 48%NYM 52%

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Citi Field · Fox, MLB.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.

NYM75%50%75%LADStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Dodgers
  • Andy PagesBatting2-4
  • Tony GonsolinPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Mets
  • Brett BatyBatting3-3, 2 RBI
  • David PetersonPitching7.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Baty doubled to center, Torrens scored, Vientos to third.2–5
  • 4Soto doubled to center, Baty scored and Lindor scored, Marte thrown out at home.2–4
  • 4Marte reached on infield single to second, Torrens scored, Lindor to second, Baty to third.2–2
  • 2Baty singled to right, J. Young scored, Taylor to third.2–1
  • 2Rushing grounded out to catcher, Edman scored, E. Hernández to second.2–0
  • 2E. Hernández singled to center, Pages scored, Edman to third.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Mets 52%

Toss-upHit
LAD 48%NYM 52%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
NYM 52%
ML LAD +100 / NYM -120
Pre-line forecast
NYM 50%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYM 50%
Ratings vs. market
−2.4 pts
NYM: Elo 49.8%, market 52.2%
Fair odds
NYM -109
LAD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
LAD 4.2 – 4.3 NYM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorLADNYMWhy
Team rating15611537Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−9−5LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsLAD +2 EloLAD 50.2%
Market-implied ratingsNYM 50.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYM 50.1%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYM 52.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets compared, with each team's league rank
LADStatNYM
2nd of 305.7Runs scored4.413th of 30
22nd of 304.5Runs allowed3.31st of 30
4th of 30+1.3Margin+1.15th of 30
13th of 305–5Last 104–621st of 30
8th of 3011–11Road vs home17–61st of 30
26th of 301494Opponent Elo150112th of 30
1st of 301561Elo rating15375th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

DodgersMets
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonLADNYM
Run line26–2524–27
Last 104–62–8
Favorite19–2414–22
Underdog7–110–5
Overs–unders29–2218–33
Overs–unders, last 107–32–8

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

LAD 12–7 NYM in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.