Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Matt SauerPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Mets- Brett BatyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 13Pages sacrificed into double play, right to first, T. Hernández scored, Kim thrown out at first.7–5
- 13T. Hernández doubled to left, Smith scored.6–5
- 9Taylor singled to left, McNeil scored.5–5
- 9McNeil tripled to right, Marte scored and Alonso scored.5–4
- 5Pages singled to left, T. Hernández scored, Muncy to second.5–2
- 5Muncy singled to left, Smith scored, T. Hernández to second.4–2
- 4Alonso hit sacrifice fly to right, Marte scored.3–2
- 3Baty homered to right center (385 feet).3–1
- 3T. Hernández singled to left, Freeman scored and Ohtani scored, Smith to second.3–0
- 3Smith reached on infield single to shortstop, Conforto scored, Freeman to second, Ohtani to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML LAD +100 / NYM -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 51.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- LAD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −2 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +9 Elo | NYM 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +1.15th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 17–51st of 30 |
| 26th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 1st of 301559 | Elo rating | 15395th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–25 | 24–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–24 | 14–21 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 28–22 | 17–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 11–7 NYM in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.
- Oct 20NYM 5 @ LAD 10PlayoffsPicked LAD 58%Hit
- Oct 18LAD 6 @ NYM 12PlayoffsPicked LAD 52%Miss
- Oct 17LAD 10 @ NYM 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 55%Hit
- Oct 16LAD 8 @ NYM 0PlayoffsPicked LAD 51%Hit
- Oct 14NYM 7 @ LAD 3PlayoffsPicked LAD 58%Miss
- Oct 13NYM 0 @ LAD 9PlayoffsPicked LAD 60%Hit
- May 29LAD 10 @ NYM 3Picked LAD 52%Hit
- May 28LAD 3 @ NYM 0Picked LAD 53%Hit