Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting2-4
- Sean BurkePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Palacios singled to right, Robert Jr. scored.1–4
- 6Burger doubled to center, Langford scored, Jung thrown out at home.1–3
- 3Robert Jr. singled to center, Tauchman scored, Vargas to third.0–3
- 3Benintendi hit sacrifice fly to center, Rojas scored, Tauchman to third.0–2
- 3Vargas walked, Sosa scored, Tauchman to second, Rojas to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 63%
- ML TEX -190 / CHW +160
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 61.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -170
- CHW +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 3.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +3 | TEX: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +83 Elo | TEX 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 63.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.328th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.125th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 24th of 308–16 | Road vs home | 10–1427th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 20th of 301494 | Elo rating | 140529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–26 | 27–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 27–22 |
| Overs–unders | 15–36 | 24–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 12–1 CHW in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 13.