Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Landon KnackPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 3Soto grounded into fielder's choice to second, Lindor scored, Vientos out at second.1–3
- 1Alonso homered to left center (406 feet), Soto scored.1–2
- 1Ohtani homered to right center (411 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 51%
- ML LAD -105 / NYM -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -104
- LAD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +14 | LAD: Landon Knack: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +17 Elo | NYM 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.32nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +1.15th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 13th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 18–61st of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 1st of 301559 | Elo rating | 15405th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–26 | 25–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–24 | 15–22 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 29–23 | 18–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 12–8 NYM in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.
- May 24LAD 2 @ NYM 5Picked NYM 52%Hit
- May 23LAD 7 @ NYM 5Picked NYM 52%Miss
- Oct 20NYM 5 @ LAD 10PlayoffsPicked LAD 58%Hit
- Oct 18LAD 6 @ NYM 12PlayoffsPicked LAD 52%Miss
- Oct 17LAD 10 @ NYM 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 55%Hit
- Oct 16LAD 8 @ NYM 0PlayoffsPicked LAD 51%Hit
- Oct 14NYM 7 @ LAD 3PlayoffsPicked LAD 58%Miss
- Oct 13NYM 0 @ LAD 9PlayoffsPicked LAD 60%Hit