Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Taylor doubled to left, Quero scored.5–4
- 9A. García doubled to left, Higashioka scored and Burger scored.5–3
- 9Higashioka reached on infield single to third, Jung scored.3–3
- 6Robert Jr. hit sacrifice fly to left, Vargas scored.2–3
- 6Slater homered to center (420 feet).2–2
- 4Vargas homered to left (345 feet).2–1
- 2Burger homered to left center (423 feet), Jung scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML TEX -120 / CHW +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 58.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- CHW +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −9 | TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +62 Elo | TEX 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 3.426th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 308–18 | Road vs home | 12–1426th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301488 | Elo rating | 141129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–28 | 29–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–17 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 29–22 |
| Overs–unders | 16–37 | 25–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 12–3 CHW in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 15.