Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Joshua PalaciosBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryse WilsonPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tauchman homered to right (364 feet).5–10
- 8A. García homered to right center (383 feet).5–9
- 7Robert Jr. doubled to left, Vargas scored, Benintendi to third.4–9
- 6Sosa doubled to left, Benintendi scored, Thaiss scored and Robert Jr. scored.4–8
- 6Benintendi doubled to right, Meidroth scored and Tauchman scored.4–5
- 6Tauchman grounded into fielder's choice to second, Slater scored, Meidroth to second.4–3
- 5Higashioka singled to center, Langford scored, Jung to second.4–2
- 4Palacios homered to right (361 feet), Robert Jr. scored.3–2
- 4Heim scored on error, Haggerty safe at first on fielding error by left fielder Palacios.3–0
- 4Semien hit sacrifice fly to center, Pederson scored, Heim to third.2–0
- 1Smith doubled to center, Haggerty scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 60%
- ML TEX -165 / CHW +140
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 58.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TEX -149
- CHW +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.7 – 3.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −6 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Bryse Wilson: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +58 Elo | TEX 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 62.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 3.328th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.125th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 25th of 308–17 | Road vs home | 11–1426th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301491 | Elo rating | 140829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–27 | 28–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–16 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 28–22 |
| Overs–unders | 15–37 | 24–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 12–2 CHW in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 14.