Colorado Rockies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Sam HilliardBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lindor homered to center (384 feet).2–4
- 7Hilliard homered to right center (378 feet).2–3
- 6McMahon doubled to right, Estrada scored, Doyle to third.1–3
- 4Marte homered to center (432 feet).0–3
- 3Soto doubled to center, Lindor scored.0–2
- 1Lindor homered to left center (373 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 73%
- ML COL +250 / NYM -310
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 72.8%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -265
- COL +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 5.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1391 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −2 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +171 Elo | NYM 72.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 72.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.313th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.1 | Margin | +1.05th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 30th of 303–25 | Road vs home | 21–71st of 30 |
| 1st of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 149816th of 30 |
| 30th of 301391 | Elo rating | 15394th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–34 | 27–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 17–24 |
| Underdog | 20–31 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 23–33 | 20–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–6 NYM in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.