Chicago White Sox at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Mets- Jared YoungBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lindor singled to left, Acuña scored, Alvarez to second.4–6
- 7Vargas doubled to left, Tauchman scored.4–5
- 7Meidroth scored, Tauchman to second on passed ball by Alvarez.3–5
- 7Meidroth scored, Tauchman to second on passed ball by Alvarez.3–5
- 3McNeil hit sacrifice fly to right, Baty scored, J. Young to third.2–5
- 1J. Young homered to right (367 feet), Baty scored.2–4
- 1Alonso homered to center (419 feet), Nimmo scored.2–2
- 1Vargas homered to left (354 feet), Tauchman scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 71%
- ML CHW +235 / NYM -290
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 68.2%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -249
- CHW +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.2 – 5.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −8 | CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +132 Elo | NYM 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 71.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.312th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.15th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–22 | Road vs home | 20–61st of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 29th of 301410 | Elo rating | 15425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–23 | 26–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 16–23 |
| Underdog | 31–22 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 26–28 | 18–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–6 NYM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.