Chicago White Sox at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon WaddellPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alonso doubled to left, Nimmo scored.9–4
- 8Benintendi homered to right (366 feet).9–3
- 7Taylor hit sacrifice fly to left, Lee scored.8–3
- 6Sosa singled to left, Benintendi scored.7–3
- 6Benintendi tripled to right, Vargas scored.6–3
- 3Vientos homered to right (368 feet), Nimmo scored and Baty scored.5–3
- 3Rojas grounded out to first, Sosa scored, Quero to third.5–0
- 2Tauchman doubled to right, Lee scored and Rojas scored.4–0
- 1Benintendi singled to right, Tauchman scored and Vargas scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 66%
- ML CHW +180 / NYM -215
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 70.7%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -191
- CHW +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.0 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −6 | CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYM: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +153 Elo | NYM 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 69.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.311th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.15th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–23 | Road vs home | 21–61st of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 29th of 301409 | Elo rating | 15434th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–24 | 27–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 17–23 |
| Underdog | 31–23 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 27–28 | 19–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–7 NYM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.