Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chase DollanderPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Goodman homered to left (369 feet).3–2
- 5Estrada hit sacrifice fly to left, Freeman scored.2–2
- 5Beck singled to right, Moniak scored, Freeman to third.1–2
- 3Stowers singled to center, J. Sánchez scored, Ramírez to second.0–2
- 3J. Sánchez singled to right, Fortes scored, Sanoja to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 62%
- ML COL +150 / MIA -180
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 56.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- MIA -161
- COL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 4.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1390 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −9 | COL: Chase Dollander: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +47 Elo | MIA 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 5.528th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.1 | Margin | −1.427th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 30th of 304–28 | Road vs home | 14–1825th of 30 |
| 1st of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 30 |
| 30th of 301390 | Elo rating | 144826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–35 | 28–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 1–10 |
| Underdog | 23–32 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 25–35 | 33–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 8–7 MIA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.