Colorado Rockies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Tyler FreemanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carson PalmquistPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Soto homered to right center (388 feet).3–5
- 5Lindor homered to left center (386 feet).3–4
- 5Freeman homered to right center (385 feet), Hiura scored.3–3
- 4Alonso homered to right center (407 feet), Marte scored and Soto scored.1–3
- 3Arcia homered to center (393 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 78%
- ML COL +330 / NYM -425
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 73.1%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- NYM -348
- COL +348 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.9 – 5.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1389 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +10 | COL: Carson Palmquist: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +173 Elo | NYM 73.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 74.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 74.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 77.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.2 | Margin | +1.15th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 30th of 303–27 | Road vs home | 23–71st of 30 |
| 1st of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 30th of 301389 | Elo rating | 15414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–35 | 28–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 18–25 |
| Underdog | 21–32 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 24–34 | 21–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–8 NYM in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.