Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- German MarquezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hilliard doubled to right, Hiura scored.6–4
- 5Goodman homered to center (418 feet), Tovar scored.5–4
- 4Freeman singled to center, Doyle scored.3–4
- 3Goodman homered to center (401 feet).2–4
- 2J. Sánchez doubled to center, Hicks scored.1–4
- 1Wagaman hit sacrifice fly to right, Ramírez scored.1–3
- 1Lopez singled to left, J. Sánchez scored, Ramírez to third.1–2
- 1Ramírez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Edwards scored, Ramírez to second, J. Sánchez safe at third on fielding error by catcher Goodman.1–1
- 1Estrada doubled to left, Goodman scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 64%
- ML COL +165 / MIA -200
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- MIA: Elo 61.2%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- MIA -177
- COL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 4.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1388 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | 0 | COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +79 Elo | MIA 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 65.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 5.528th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.1 | Margin | −1.427th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 30th of 303–28 | Road vs home | 14–1724th of 30 |
| 1st of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 15084th of 30 |
| 30th of 301388 | Elo rating | 145026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–35 | 28–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 1–9 |
| Underdog | 22–32 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 24–35 | 32–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 7–7 MIA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.