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New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast

Final/10WPIX, MLB.TV, SportsNet LA, MLBN

Away

Mets

38-22

4–3

at

Home

Dodgers

36-24

NYM 41%LAD 59%

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Dodger Stadium · WPIX, MLB.TV, SportsNet LA, MLBN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.

LAD75%50%75%NYMStart123456789Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Mets
  • Francisco LindorBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Paul BlackburnPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Dodgers
  • Shohei OhtaniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Dustin MayPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K

Scoring summary

  • 10Pages singled to right, T. Hernández scored, Freeman to second.4–3
  • 10Lindor singled to left, Marte scored.4–2
  • 10Alvarez doubled to right, Acuña scored.3–2
  • 9Ohtani hit sacrifice fly to left, Edman scored.2–2
  • 7Ohtani homered to right (414 feet).2–1
  • 5Nimmo hit a ground rule double, McNeil scored, Alvarez to third.2–0
  • 1Lindor homered to right (417 feet).1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Dodgers 59%

LeanMiss
NYM 41%LAD 59%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
LAD 59%
ML NYM +135 / LAD -160
Pre-line forecast
LAD 58%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAD 57%
Ratings vs. market
−1.7 pts
LAD: Elo 57.4%, market 59.1%
Fair odds
LAD -145
NYM +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NYM 4.3 – 5.2 LAD
Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYMLADWhy
Team rating15421563Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−12+1NYM: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsLAD +52 EloLAD 57.4%
Market-implied ratingsLAD 57.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAD 57.6%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastLAD 59.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers compared, with each team's league rank
NYMStatLAD
13th of 304.4Runs scored5.81st of 30
1st of 303.3Runs allowed4.522nd of 30
5th of 30+1.1Margin+1.44th of 30
1st of 308–2Last 106–49th of 30
15th of 3013–15Road vs home21–94th of 30
29th of 301491Opponent Elo149817th of 30
4th of 301542Elo rating15631st of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

MetsDodgers
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYMLAD
Run line28–3130–29
Last 105–56–4
Favorite18–2621–26
Underdog10–59–3
Overs–unders21–3835–24
Overs–unders, last 104–67–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NYM 9–12 LAD in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.