New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9LeMahieu doubled to right, Bellinger scored.7–3
- 7Muncy homered to right (403 feet).6–3
- 7Pages homered to left (374 feet).6–2
- 5Peraza singled to center, Wells scored, LeMahieu to second.6–1
- 5LeMahieu singled to left, Domínguez scored, Wells to third.5–1
- 3Volpe scored on Yamamoto wild pitch, Wells to second on wild pitch by Yamamoto.4–1
- 3Volpe scored on Yamamoto wild pitch, Wells to second on wild pitch by Yamamoto.4–1
- 3Rice homered to center (425 feet), Judge scored.3–1
- 2Edman homered to left (376 feet).1–1
- 1Domínguez singled to left, Grisham scored, Domínguez safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Pages, Rice safe at third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 61%
- ML NYY +145 / LAD -175
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.6%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -156
- NYY +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.8 – 4.7 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +19 | NYY: Ryan Yarbrough: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +46 Elo | LAD 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.91st of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.422nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.6 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 5th of 3017–13 | Road vs home | 21–82nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301554 | Elo rating | 15661st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–29 | 30–28 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–26 | 21–25 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 25–32 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 4–9 LAD in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.
- May 31NYY 2 @ LAD 18Picked NYY 53%Miss
- May 30NYY 5 @ LAD 8Picked NYY 54%Miss
- Oct 30LAD 7 @ NYY 6PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Miss
- Oct 29LAD 4 @ NYY 11PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Hit
- Oct 28LAD 4 @ NYY 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Miss
- Oct 26NYY 2 @ LAD 4PlayoffsPicked LAD 54%Hit
- Oct 25NYY 3 @ LAD 6PlayoffsPicked LAD 53%Hit
- Jun 9LAD 4 @ NYY 6Picked LAD 55%Miss