Los Angeles Dodgers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4
- Gavin WilliamsPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith homered to left center (409 feet).7–2
- 6Manzardo singled to right, Ramírez scored.6–2
- 6Freeman singled to right, Ohtani scored, Betts to third.6–1
- 6Betts singled to right, Kim scored, Ohtani to second.5–1
- 5Muncy hit sacrifice fly to right, Freeman scored, T. Hernández to third.4–1
- 5T. Hernández singled to left, Ohtani scored, Freeman to second.3–1
- 3Kwan grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Arias scored, Martínez out at third.2–1
- 2Pages singled to left, Smith scored.2–0
- 1Ohtani homered to right (378 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML LAD -180 / CLE +150
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -161
- CLE +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 3.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | 0 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +46 Elo | LAD 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.216th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 14–813th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149817th of 30 |
| 1st of 301557 | Elo rating | 151116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–27 | 24–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–24 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 17–14 |
| Overs–unders | 29–24 | 24–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 4–2 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.