New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Ian HamiltonPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting3-6, 2 HR, 7 RBI
- Landon KnackPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rushing homered to right (393 feet), Edman scored and Kim scored.2–18
- 8Judge homered to center (425 feet).2–15
- 7Pages homered to center (403 feet).1–15
- 5Muncy homered to right (410 feet), Ohtani scored and Freeman scored.1–14
- 5Freeman doubled to right, Kim scored, Ohtani to third.1–11
- 4Judge homered to left center (407 feet).1–10
- 2Kim homered to right center (412 feet), Edman scored.0–10
- 2Edman doubled to left, Conforto scored.0–8
- 2Muncy homered to center (400 feet), T. Hernández scored and Smith scored.0–7
- 1Edman doubled to left, Muncy scored, Pages to third.0–4
- 1Conforto hit sacrifice fly to right, Smith scored, Muncy to third.0–3
- 1Muncy singled to center, Freeman scored, Smith to third.0–2
- 1Smith singled to right, Ohtani scored, Smith to second, Freeman to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML NYY -125 / LAD +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 46.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- LAD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.9 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −2 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Landon Knack: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +26 Elo | LAD 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 7th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.0 | Margin | +1.24th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3017–12 | Road vs home | 20–83rd of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301558 | Elo rating | 15621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–28 | 29–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–25 | 21–25 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 24–32 | 33–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 4–8 LAD in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.
- May 30NYY 5 @ LAD 8Picked NYY 54%Miss
- Oct 30LAD 7 @ NYY 6PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Miss
- Oct 29LAD 4 @ NYY 11PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Hit
- Oct 28LAD 4 @ NYY 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Miss
- Oct 26NYY 2 @ LAD 4PlayoffsPicked LAD 54%Hit
- Oct 25NYY 3 @ LAD 6PlayoffsPicked LAD 53%Hit
- Jun 9LAD 4 @ NYY 6Picked LAD 55%Miss
- Jun 8LAD 11 @ NYY 3Picked NYY 52%Miss