New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-4
- Clarke SchmidtPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting2-3
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 1Volpe hit sacrifice fly to center, Goldschmidt scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML NYY -175 / LAA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 64.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -156
- LAA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.7 – 3.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −2 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +100 Elo | NYY 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.225th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.1 | Margin | −1.024th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3016–11 | Road vs home | 10–1427th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301560 | Elo rating | 144627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–26 | 24–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 24–23 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders | 23–31 | 30–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 7–7 LAA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.