New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Angels- Yoan MoncadaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adell grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Ward scored, Rengifo out at second.3–2
- 9Moncada homered to center (413 feet).3–1
- 7Peraza homered to center (408 feet).3–0
- 6Volpe singled to center, Bellinger scored.2–0
- 4Rice homered to right center (423 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 66%
- ML NYY -215 / LAA +180
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 63.9%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -191
- LAA +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.0 – 3.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | 0 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +99 Elo | NYY 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 64.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.216th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.1 | Margin | −1.025th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 10–1327th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301559 | Elo rating | 144727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–25 | 23–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 24–22 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders | 23–30 | 30–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–7 LAA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.