New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wells hit sacrifice fly to left, Judge scored, Bellinger to third.5–1
- 4Volpe doubled to center, Bellinger scored, Grisham scored and Judge scored.4–1
- 4Bellinger walked, Rice scored, Judge to second, Grisham to third.1–1
- 1Neto homered to center (440 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 62%
- ML NYY -180 / LAA +150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 62.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -161
- LAA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −2 | NYY: Ryan Yarbrough: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +92 Elo | NYY 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 64.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.1 | Margin | −1.025th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3014–11 | Road vs home | 10–1225th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301557 | Elo rating | 144927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–25 | 23–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 23–22 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 23–29 | 30–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 5–7 LAA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.