Los Angeles Dodgers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kolby AllardPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Martínez homered to left center (394 feet), Schneemann scored and Jones scored.4–7
- 8Jones singled to left, Noel scored and Wilson scored, Schneemann to second.4–4
- 7Santana singled to right, Ramírez scored.4–2
- 7E. Hernández scored on Herrin wild pitch.4–1
- 7E. Hernández scored on Herrin wild pitch.4–1
- 6Freeman singled to right, Betts scored, Freeman to second.3–1
- 4Pages singled to right, Smith scored.2–1
- 4Smith doubled to center, T. Hernández scored.1–1
- 1Ramírez singled to left, Martínez scored, Ramírez out stretching at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 61%
- ML LAD -175 / CLE +145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 52.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -156
- CLE +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +5 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Kolby Allard: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +20 Elo | LAD 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 8th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 14–1016th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 1st of 301562 | Elo rating | 150716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–27 | 24–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–24 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders | 31–24 | 26–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–2 CLE in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.