Los Angeles Dodgers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Guardians- Daniel SchneemannBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arias doubled to left, Ramírez scored and Santana scored.9–5
- 9Muncy homered to right (403 feet), Ohtani scored and Betts scored.9–3
- 8Pages singled to center, T. Hernández scored on fielding error by center fielder Martínez, Pages to second, Muncy safe at third on error.6–3
- 6Conforto homered to center (406 feet).5–3
- 4Schneemann homered to right (379 feet), Ramírez scored and Santana scored.4–3
- 4Ohtani homered to left (362 feet), Edman scored.4–0
- 2Rushing singled to center, Pages scored, Conforto to second.2–0
- 2Pages singled to right, Muncy scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 55%
- ML LAD -135 / CLE +115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 53.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -124
- CLE +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +14 | LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +21 Elo | LAD 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 14th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 14–915th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 1st of 301560 | Elo rating | 150916th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–27 | 24–29 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–24 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders | 30–24 | 25–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 5–2 CLE in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.