New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pages singled to center, Smith scored and Freeman scored.5–8
- 6Conforto walked, Pages scored, Muncy to second, Edman to third.5–6
- 6Pages singled to left, Smith scored, Freeman to third.5–5
- 6Freeman doubled to left, T. Hernández scored, Smith to third.5–4
- 6Ohtani homered to right center (377 feet).5–3
- 3Goldschmidt homered to right center (371 feet).5–2
- 2E. Hernández grounded out to third, Edman scored.4–2
- 2Grisham homered to right (382 feet), Peraza scored.4–1
- 2Wells homered to right center (382 feet).2–1
- 1Ohtani homered to center (417 feet).1–1
- 1Judge homered to center (446 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML NYY -130 / LAD +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 50.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- LAD +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −9 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +4 Elo | NYY 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.422nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.1 | Margin | +1.24th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 1st of 3017–11 | Road vs home | 19–83rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 1st of 301560 | Elo rating | 15602nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–27 | 28–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–24 | 21–25 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 23–32 | 32–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 4–7 LAD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.
- Oct 30LAD 7 @ NYY 6PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Miss
- Oct 29LAD 4 @ NYY 11PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Hit
- Oct 28LAD 4 @ NYY 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Miss
- Oct 26NYY 2 @ LAD 4PlayoffsPicked LAD 54%Hit
- Oct 25NYY 3 @ LAD 6PlayoffsPicked LAD 53%Hit
- Jun 9LAD 4 @ NYY 6Picked LAD 55%Miss
- Jun 8LAD 11 @ NYY 3Picked NYY 52%Miss
- Jun 7LAD 2 @ NYY 1Picked LAD 59%Hit