New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Freeman doubled to left, Edman scored, Ohtani to third.5–6
- 9Muncy homered to right center (404 feet).5–5
- 5Nimmo reached on infield single to first, Marte scored, Alonso to third.5–4
- 5Alonso doubled to center, Lindor scored, Marte to third.4–4
- 3Soto homered to right center (397 feet), Lindor scored.3–4
- 1Muncy homered to right (407 feet), T. Hernández scored.1–4
- 1Smith grounded out to third, Freeman scored, T. Hernández to second.1–2
- 1Freeman doubled to right, Betts scored, Freeman safe at third on fielding error by second baseman McNeil.1–1
- 1Alonso singled to center, Marte scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML NYM +125 / LAD -150
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -135
- NYM +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −15 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +30 Elo | LAD 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.82nd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 12th of 3014–15 | Road vs home | 21–107th of 30 |
| 27th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 4th of 301543 | Elo rating | 15621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–31 | 30–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–26 | 21–27 |
| Underdog | 11–5 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 21–39 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 10–12 LAD in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.
- Jun 2NYM 4 @ LAD 3Picked LAD 59%Miss
- May 25LAD 1 @ NYM 3Picked NYM 51%Hit
- May 24LAD 2 @ NYM 5Picked NYM 52%Hit
- May 23LAD 7 @ NYM 5Picked NYM 52%Miss
- Oct 20NYM 5 @ LAD 10PlayoffsPicked LAD 58%Hit
- Oct 18LAD 6 @ NYM 12PlayoffsPicked LAD 52%Miss
- Oct 17LAD 10 @ NYM 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 55%Hit
- Oct 16LAD 8 @ NYM 0PlayoffsPicked LAD 51%Hit