Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7J. Sánchez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Wagaman scored, Hernández out at second.3–2
- 7Hernández singled to left, Norby scored, Wagaman to third.3–1
- 6Doyle hit sacrifice fly to right, Goodman scored.3–0
- 5Beck hit a ground rule double, Freeman scored.2–0
- 1Goodman tripled to center, Estrada scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 57%
- ML COL +125 / MIA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 61.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIA -135
- COL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.9 – 4.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1391 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +1 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +80 Elo | MIA 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 29th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.0 | Margin | −1.427th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–28 | Road vs home | 14–1926th of 30 |
| 1st of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 30th of 301391 | Elo rating | 144627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–35 | 28–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 1–11 |
| Underdog | 24–32 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 25–36 | 33–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 9–7 MIA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.