San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goodman homered to left center (427 feet).10–7
- 9Yastrzemski singled to center, Ramos scored, Schmitt to third.10–6
- 9Schmitt singled to left, Adames scored, Ramos to second.9–6
- 9Flores hit sacrifice fly to right, Lee scored.8–6
- 8Fitzgerald hit sacrifice bunt, Schmitt scored, Yastrzemski to third.7–6
- 8Yastrzemski doubled to center, Ramos scored and Smith scored, Schmitt to third.6–6
- 8Schmitt walked, Adames scored, Smith to second, Ramos to third.4–6
- 6Freeman hit sacrifice fly to left, Ritter scored.3–6
- 5Arcia singled to right, Doyle scored, Arcia thrown out at second.3–5
- 3Hiura singled to left, Estrada scored, Doyle to second.3–4
- 3Beck scored on error and Goodman scored on error, Estrada safe at first on error by first baseman Encarnación.3–3
- 3Goodman doubled to center, Freeman scored, Beck to third.3–1
- 3Adames hit sacrifice fly to right, Lee scored.3–0
- 1Adames homered to center (452 feet), Lee scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SF 64%
- ML SF -200 / COL +165
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- SF: Elo 67.5%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- SF -177
- COL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 5.9 – 4.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1387 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −2 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +127 Elo | SF 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 66.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.230th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −3.030th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3017–17 | Road vs home | 6–2630th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15171st of 30 |
| 12th of 301518 | Elo rating | 138730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–37 | 29–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 27–34 |
| Overs–unders | 30–37 | 26–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 23–8 COL in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 31.