Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-2, 3 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 4Yastrzemski scored on error, Fitzgerald safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Albies.3–4
- 4Yastrzemski doubled to right, Chapman scored and Flores scored.3–3
- 3Olson doubled to center, Allen scored and Riley scored.3–1
- 2Yastrzemski hit sacrifice fly to center, Chapman scored.1–1
- 1Olson grounded into fielder's choice to first, Acuña Jr. scored, Riley out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML ATL -120 / SF +100
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 47.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -109
- SF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.8 – 3.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | 0 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +18 Elo | SF 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.43rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 27th of 3010–22 | Road vs home | 21–117th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 11th of 301518 | Elo rating | 151612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–36 | 29–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–28 | 11–27 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 26–37 | 30–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 8–7 SF in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.