New York Mets at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Ronny MauricioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- German MarquezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nimmo doubled to right, Acuña scored.8–1
- 7Torrens singled to center, Soto scored and Alonso scored.7–1
- 7Taylor hit sacrifice fly to left, Nimmo scored, Alonso to second, Soto to third.5–1
- 6McNeil homered to right center (414 feet).4–1
- 5Nimmo singled to left, Mauricio scored.3–1
- 5J. Young homered to left center (385 feet).2–1
- 4McMahon homered to left center (392 feet).1–1
- 3Mauricio homered to right center (456 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 70%
- ML NYM -270 / COL +220
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 69.4%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -234
- COL +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 6.7 – 4.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1392 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +3 | NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +142 Elo | NYM 69.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 72.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 6.029th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −2.930th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 9th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 6–2330th of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15151st of 30 |
| 4th of 301545 | Elo rating | 139230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–32 | 28–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 18–27 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 26–32 |
| Overs–unders | 23–41 | 25–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 10–6 COL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.