New York Mets at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting3-6, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Jordan BeckBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Chase DollanderPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ritter reached on infield single to third, Beck scored.13–5
- 9Beck doubled to left, Freeman scored.13–4
- 9Alvarez homered to center (450 feet).13–3
- 8Alonso homered to left (372 feet), Soto scored.12–3
- 7Goodman singled to center, Freeman scored.10–3
- 7Baty homered to right center (424 feet), McNeil scored.10–2
- 5Beck doubled to right, Fulford scored, Freeman to third.8–2
- 5Fulford singled to center, Hilliard scored.8–1
- 4McNeil homered to right (404 feet), Soto scored and Alonso scored.8–0
- 3Taylor doubled to left, Mauricio scored.5–0
- 3Alonso homered to left center (416 feet), Soto scored.4–0
- 2Alvarez singled to center, Mauricio scored, Taylor to second.2–0
- 2McNeil homered to right center (411 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 71%
- ML NYM -285 / COL +230
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 64.8%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -244
- COL +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 6.2 – 4.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1390 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +22 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Chase Dollander: team allows 1.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +106 Elo | NYM 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 67.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 6.129th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −3.030th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 7th of 3017–17 | Road vs home | 6–2430th of 30 |
| 28th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 15161st of 30 |
| 4th of 301547 | Elo rating | 139030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–32 | 28–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 19–27 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 26–33 |
| Overs–unders | 23–42 | 25–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 11–6 COL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.