San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Kyle FarmerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carson PalmquistPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Yastrzemski singled to right, Adames scored, Flores to third.6–5
- 9Flores reached on infield single to pitcher, Lee scored, Adames to second.5–5
- 9Ramos hit sacrifice fly to center, Knizner scored, Lee to third.4–5
- 9Schmitt homered to left center (408 feet).3–5
- 8Doyle tripled to center, McMahon scored.2–5
- 8Estrada grounded out to shortstop, Goodman scored.2–4
- 5Farmer homered to left (376 feet).2–3
- 5Adames homered to center (439 feet).2–2
- 4McMahon homered to left center (424 feet).1–2
- 2Ritter singled to center, Doyle scored.1–1
- 1Adames hit sacrifice fly to center, Lee scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SF 64%
- ML SF -200 / COL +165
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- SF: Elo 64.5%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- SF -177
- COL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 6.4 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1388 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +3 | SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Carson Palmquist: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +104 Elo | SF 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 65.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −3.030th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 11th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 6–2530th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15171st of 30 |
| 12th of 301517 | Elo rating | 138830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–36 | 28–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–27 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 26–34 |
| Overs–unders | 30–36 | 26–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 22–8 COL in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 30.