San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Drew GilbertBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kai-Wei TengPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Tyler FreemanBatting3-5
- Chase DollanderPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Adames homered to left (393 feet), Gilbert scored.8–2
- 6Fernández doubled to center, Tovar scored.6–2
- 6Karros grounded out to third, Doyle scored, Tovar to third.6–1
- 5Smith singled to left, Devers scored and Gilbert scored, Smith out stretching at second, Adames to third.6–0
- 5Adames walked, Koss scored, Devers to second, Gilbert to third.4–0
- 3Gilbert homered to right (388 feet), Bailey scored.3–0
- 1Devers homered to right (411 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 57%
- ML SF -150 / COL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- SF: Elo 58.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SF -135
- COL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 6.1 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1383 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −30 | +7 | SF: Kai-Wei Teng: team allows 1.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · COL: Chase Dollander: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +60 Elo | SF 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.829th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 6.330th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 11th of 3033–35 | Road vs home | 22–4730th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15091st of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Elo rating | 138330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–80 | 68–69 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–56 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 35–24 | 66–65 |
| Overs–unders | 66–71 | 61–76 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 24–9 COL in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 33.