Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Tyler FreemanBatting2-4
- Chase DollanderPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alvarez homered to center (421 feet), Peña scored.0–4
- 7Smith homered to left (346 feet).0–2
- 1Sánchez singled to center, Alvarez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 71%
- ML COL +235 / HOU -290
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 69.3%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -249
- COL +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.7 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +6 | COL: Chase Dollander: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +141 Elo | HOU 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 72.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 71.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.4 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 30th of 3017–49 | Road vs home | 38–2813th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 30th of 301386 | Elo rating | 151213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–67 | 64–68 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 29–54 |
| Underdog | 63–63 | 35–14 |
| Overs–unders | 59–73 | 63–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–9 HOU in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.