Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Jared TrioloBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Doyle homered to center (412 feet).1–5
- 5Reynolds doubled to center, Triolo scored.0–5
- 3Triolo homered to center (404 feet), Kiner-Falefa scored.0–4
- 2McCutchen homered to left (391 feet), Pham scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 62%
- ML COL +150 / PIT -180
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 61.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- PIT -161
- COL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 4.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1385 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −15 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +84 Elo | PIT 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.4 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 30th of 3016–47 | Road vs home | 37–3015th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15082nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301385 | Elo rating | 146726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–65 | 66–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 14–27 |
| Underdog | 62–61 | 52–36 |
| Overs–unders | 59–70 | 55–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–10 PIT in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 16.