Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-4
- Mitch KellerPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suwinski singled to right, N. Gonzales scored.7–3
- 7Simon hit sacrifice fly to right, Bart scored, Triolo to third.7–2
- 7Kirk homered to right center (409 feet), Bichette scored.7–1
- 2Kiner-Falefa grounded out to third, McCutchen scored, Bart to second, Suwinski to third.5–1
- 2Springer homered to center (423 feet), Straw scored.5–0
- 1Lukes singled to center, Barger scored and Bichette scored.3–0
- 1Kirk singled to right, Springer scored, Bichette to second, Kirk out stretching at second, Barger to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 58%
- ML TOR -155 / PIT +130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 55.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -140
- PIT +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.1 – 3.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −5 | TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +41 Elo | TOR 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.530th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 8th of 3031–32 | Road vs home | 35–2915th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15081st of 30 |
| 8th of 301520 | Elo rating | 146526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–55 | 64–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–33 | 13–27 |
| Underdog | 41–22 | 51–35 |
| Overs–unders | 73–53 | 53–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–2 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.