Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting3-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-3, 4 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Yelich singled to center, Frelick scored and Ortiz scored, Contreras to third.5–12
- 7Contreras walked, Durbin scored, Frelick to second, Ortiz to third.5–10
- 7Ortiz singled to center, Perkins scored, Ortiz to second, Seigler to third.5–9
- 6Contreras singled to right, Ortiz scored and Frelick scored.5–8
- 6Reynolds homered to right center (387 feet), Simon scored.5–6
- 5Reynolds homered to right (378 feet), Simon scored and Horwitz scored.3–6
- 4Contreras singled to left, Collins scored.0–6
- 4Collins doubled to left, Frelick scored.0–5
- 4Frelick doubled to right, Ortiz scored.0–4
- 4Ortiz singled to left, Perkins scored.0–3
- 3Yelich singled to right, Frelick scored, Contreras to third.0–2
- 3Frelick singled to center, Seigler scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 69%
- ML PIT +205 / MIL -250
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 68.9%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -218
- PIT +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +16 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +138 Elo | MIL 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 64.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 29th of 3017–41 | Road vs home | 41–202nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 26th of 301465 | Elo rating | 15731st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–60 | 69–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 12–27 | 33–32 |
| Underdog | 49–33 | 36–18 |
| Overs–unders | 51–70 | 56–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 14–21 MIL in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 35.