New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Contreras homered to left center (399 feet), Collins scored.4–7
- 7Ortiz scored on error, Collins safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Mauricio.4–5
- 7Frelick grounded out to shortstop, Turang scored, Ortiz to third.4–4
- 5J. Soto homered to right center (411 feet).4–3
- 4Turang homered to center (410 feet).3–3
- 4Mullins singled to right, McNeil scored, Alvarez to third.3–2
- 3Marte homered to right (358 feet).2–2
- 2Ortiz grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Perkins scored on fielding error by shortstop Lindor and Vaughn scored, Seigler to second.1–2
- 2Alonso homered to center (413 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML NYM +100 / MIL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 59.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.7 – 4.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −9 | NYM: Reed Garrett (no track record yet) · MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +65 Elo | MIL 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 21st of 3025–32 | Road vs home | 37–202nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149529th of 30 |
| 11th of 301517 | Elo rating | 15661st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–63 | 66–49 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 31–51 | 30–31 |
| Underdog | 22–12 | 36–18 |
| Overs–unders | 50–66 | 53–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 6–14 MIL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.
- Aug 8NYM 2 @ MIL 3Picked MIL 57%Hit
- Jul 3MIL 2 @ NYM 3Picked NYM 59%Hit
- Jul 2MIL 3 @ NYM 7Picked MIL 51%Miss
- Jul 2MIL 7 @ NYM 2Picked NYM 52%Miss
- Oct 3NYM 4 @ MIL 2PlayoffsPicked MIL 53%Miss
- Oct 2NYM 3 @ MIL 5PlayoffsPicked MIL 54%Hit
- Oct 1NYM 8 @ MIL 4PlayoffsPicked MIL 57%Miss
- Sep 29NYM 5 @ MIL 0Picked NYM 57%Hit