Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Isaac CollinsBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Braves- Jurickson ProfarBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 4Collins homered to right (376 feet), Contreras scored and Yelich scored.3–1
- 1Profar homered to right (390 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML MIL -145 / ATL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.5%, market 55.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- ATL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −15 | MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +60 Elo | MIL 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 1st of 3031–24 | Road vs home | 26–2622nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 1st of 301561 | Elo rating | 149918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–48 | 49–61 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–30 | 30–46 |
| Underdog | 35–18 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders | 51–60 | 51–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–9 ATL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.