Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Nationals- Robert Hassell IIIBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Collins doubled to center, Yelich scored.8–2
- 8Lockridge hit sacrifice fly to right, Turang scored, Seigler to third.7–2
- 8Turang doubled to center, Perkins scored.6–2
- 3Hassell III homered to right (416 feet), Adams scored.5–2
- 3Yelich homered to center (390 feet).5–0
- 2Contreras grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Ortiz scored, Frelick out at second.4–0
- 1Perkins singled to right, Yelich scored, Collins to second.3–0
- 1Collins singled to right, Contreras scored, Yelich to second.2–0
- 1Yelich singled to right, Frelick scored, Contreras to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 62%
- ML MIL -185 / WSH +155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 64.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -166
- WSH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.8 – 3.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −2 | MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +102 Elo | MIL 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.129th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 1st of 3029–24 | Road vs home | 21–3229th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 1st of 301556 | Elo rating | 145128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–48 | 55–54 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–30 | 2–18 |
| Underdog | 35–18 | 53–36 |
| Overs–unders | 49–60 | 59–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 9–7 WSH in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.