Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Riley AdamsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 0 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Vaughn homered to left center (413 feet).3–8
- 7Adams homered to left center (397 feet).3–7
- 6House doubled to center, Bell scored, García Jr. to third.2–7
- 4Contreras doubled to center, Frelick scored.1–7
- 3Yelich homered to right (405 feet), Chourio scored.1–6
- 3Chourio singled to center, Frelick scored and Contreras scored.1–4
- 3Contreras doubled to right, Ortiz scored, Frelick to third.1–2
- 3Frelick singled to left, Durbin scored, Ortiz to second.1–1
- 3Abrams tripled to center, Adams scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 64%
- ML WSH +170 / MIL -205
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 65.5%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -181
- WSH +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.6 – 4.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −4 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +111 Elo | MIL 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 64.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3020–27 | Road vs home | 30–178th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301455 | Elo rating | 15443rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–46 | 50–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–18 | 21–25 |
| Underdog | 45–28 | 29–18 |
| Overs–unders | 49–44 | 38–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–5 MIL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.