Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4
- Michael SorokaPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Young grounded into fielder's choice to third, Lile scored, Millas out at second.1–8
- 7Contreras homered to center (406 feet).0–8
- 6Winn doubled to right, Scott II scored.0–7
- 6Donovan hit sacrifice fly to left, Gorman scored.0–6
- 6Scott II grounded into fielder's choice to first, Arenado scored, Pozo out at second, Gorman to third.0–5
- 6Pozo singled to left, Nootbaar scored, Gorman to second, Arenado to third.0–4
- 6Arenado singled to right, Contreras scored, Nootbaar to third.0–3
- 3Burleson singled to center, Donovan scored.0–2
- 1Burleson grounded out to shortstop, Donovan scored, Winn to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML WSH +120 / STL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- STL: Elo 60.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- STL -130
- WSH +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | −14 | WSH: Michael Soroka: team allows 1.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +74 Elo | STL 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3020–26 | Road vs home | 27–1811th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15073rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301457 | Elo rating | 150317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–45 | 49–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–18 | 18–26 |
| Underdog | 45–27 | 31–18 |
| Overs–unders | 48–44 | 49–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 6–12 STL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.